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investmentsintermediate25 min

Risk and Return Analysis

Quantify portfolio risk, calculate expected return, and understand the risk-return trade-off.

What You'll Learn

  • โœ“Calculate expected return of a portfolio
  • โœ“Measure risk with standard deviation
  • โœ“Apply CAPM to estimate required returns

1. Expected Portfolio Return

Weighted average of individual asset returns: E(Rp) = w1ร—E(R1) + w2ร—E(R2) + ...

Key Points

  • โ€ขWeights must sum to 1.0
  • โ€ขSimple weighted average
  • โ€ขWorks for any number of assets

2. Portfolio Risk

Portfolio variance depends on individual variances AND covariances. Diversification reduces risk when correlation < 1.

Key Points

  • โ€ขTwo-asset: ฯƒpยฒ = w1ยฒฯƒ1ยฒ + w2ยฒฯƒ2ยฒ + 2w1w2ฯƒ12
  • โ€ขLower correlation = better diversification
  • โ€ขCannot eliminate systematic risk

3. CAPM Application

E(R) = Rf + ฮฒ(Rm-Rf). Beta measures systematic risk. Plot on the Security Market Line.

Key Points

  • โ€ขStocks above SML are undervalued
  • โ€ขStocks below SML are overvalued
  • โ€ขSML prices only systematic risk

Key Takeaways

  • โ˜…Diversification is the only free lunch in finance
  • โ˜…Total risk = systematic + unsystematic
  • โ˜…Standard deviation measures total risk; beta measures market risk

Practice Questions

1. Portfolio: 60% Stock A (E(R)=12%), 40% Stock B (E(R)=8%). Expected return?
0.60ร—12% + 0.40ร—8% = 7.2% + 3.2% = 10.4%.
2. Stock beta = 0.8, Rf = 3%, MRP = 6%. Fair return?
3% + 0.8ร—6% = 7.8%.

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FAQs

Common questions about this topic

Yes. Assets like gold sometimes move opposite to the market, giving a negative beta.

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